November 2022 Edition
The Greater Houston Partnership is an economic development organization in Houston, Texas. They serve as a a gathering place for community minded business leaders who want to be involved in the positive growth and influence Houston’s economic trajectory. Below are some highlights from the November edition of the Greater Houston Partnership’s Economy at a Glance. Download the full report below.
EVEN WITH REVISIONS
- Metro Houston has created 108,600 jobs through the first nine months of 2022. That already makes this the fifth-best year on record for job growth.
- The region added 14,800 jobs in September 2022, in line with expectations for the month. In years with strong growth, the region typically creates 10,000 to 16,000 jobs in September.
10 BEST YEARS FOR METRO HOUSTON JOB GROWTH
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- Houston’s recovery compares well against that of the nation and major U.S. metro areas. As of September, Houston ranked sixth among the nation’s 20 most populous metros in percent of jobs recovered.
OUTLOOK FOR 2023
- There’s a growing consensus among economists that the U.S. will slip into recession in ’23. If the U.S. stumbles down that path, Houston will follow. There is some hope that the U.S. may avoid a downturn, but the odds grow slimmer each day. An October survey of economists by The Wall Street Journal placed the probability of a recession within the next 12 months at 63 percent, that’s up from 49 percent in the July survey and 16 percent in October 2021. A similar survey by Bloomberg places the odds at 60 percent.
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
- Crude Oil — The closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark for light, sweet crude, averaged $87.55 per barrel in October ’22, up from $81.48 for the same period in ’21. WTI dropped below $90 in early September for the first time since February ‘21. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts WTI to average $95.74 per barrel this year and $88.58 in ’23.
- Home Sales — In the 12 months ending in September, Houston area realtors closed on 126,946 homes, compared to 128,869 for the 12 months ending in August, and 130,767 for the 12 months ending in July. In September ’22, active listings of all property types (single-family, townhomes, condos, duplexes) were up 31.0 percent over September of ’21. They are still 16.9 percent below where they stood five years ago.
- Rig Count — The Baker Hughes count of active domestic rotary rigs hit 770 the first week of November, up 220 rigs from the same week the year before, according to data recently released by the company. The rig count is 22 shy of where it stood in mid-March ’20 prior to the pandemic. However, the rig count peaked at 1,083 the last week of December ’18. The pandemic only accelerated the decline.
- Unemployment — The unemployment rate for metro Houston was 4.2 percent in September ’22, down from 4.6 percent in August ’22 and 5.7 percent in September ’21. The Texas rate was 3.8 percent, down from 5.1 percent the year prior. The U.S. rate was 3.3 percent, down from 4.6 percent in ‘21. The rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Greater Houston Partnership